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Modelling Public Debt Strategies

Authors: Michele Manna; Emmanuela Bernardini; Mauro Bufano; Davide Dottori;

Modelling Public Debt Strategies

Abstract

This paper puts forward a comprehensive framework to model medium-to-long term public debt refinancing strategies. Essentially the framework has two main building blocks. First, a large number of strategies are generated so as to determine a wide range of potential financing plans, regardless of whether they look conventional (close to current actual choices) or odd, provided they meet the Treasury’s financing needs and legal constraints. Second, the performance of these viable strategies is measured in terms of current and future costs as well as various types of risk. As an add-on, through a panel model the framework accounts for the premium over current market rates that investors may demand in order to subscribe unusually large issues by the Treasury. All in all, this framework yields a frontier of efficient cost-risk outcomes. Moreover, it assesses how strategies perform when the interest rate forecasts relied on turn out to be wrong. Finally, it encompasses both a long-term perspective in debt management and a more tactical approach, allowing for time variant choices.

Related Organizations
Keywords

refinancing strategy, public debt, government auctions, jel: jel:D44, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:G11

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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