
handle: 10419/154058
Abstract The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion – a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals – are the main explanations for the rise in sovereign yield spreads and CDS spreads during the crisis, not only for euro area countries but globally. By contrast, regional spillovers and contagion have been less important, including for euro area countries. The paper also finds evidence for herding contagion – sharp, simultaneous increases in sovereign yields across countries – but this contagion has been concentrated in time and among a few markets. Finally, empirical models with economic fundamentals generally do a poor job in explaining sovereign risk in the pre-crisis period for European economies, suggesting that the market pricing of sovereign risk may not have been fully reflecting fundamentals prior to the crisis.
CDS spreads, bond spreads, ddc:330, G15, bond spreads; CDS spreads; contagion; ratings; sovereign debt crisis; sovereign risk, bond spreads, CDS spreads, contagion, ratings, sovereign debt crisis, sovereign risk, contagion, E44, H63, sovereign risk, F30, C23, ratings, sovereign debt crisis, jel: jel:C23, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:F30, jel: jel:G15
CDS spreads, bond spreads, ddc:330, G15, bond spreads; CDS spreads; contagion; ratings; sovereign debt crisis; sovereign risk, bond spreads, CDS spreads, contagion, ratings, sovereign debt crisis, sovereign risk, contagion, E44, H63, sovereign risk, F30, C23, ratings, sovereign debt crisis, jel: jel:C23, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:F30, jel: jel:G15
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 392 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 1% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 0.1% |
