
In this essay, the author addresses four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries - developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.
uncertainty; risk; volatility; investment, Uncertainty, risk, volatility, investment, jel: jel:D81, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:O3, jel: jel:O4, jel: jel:Q54, jel: jel:E2, jel: jel:E3
uncertainty; risk; volatility; investment, Uncertainty, risk, volatility, investment, jel: jel:D81, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:O3, jel: jel:O4, jel: jel:Q54, jel: jel:E2, jel: jel:E3
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 2K | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 0.01% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 0.1% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 0.1% |
