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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Open Science Framework
Other literature type . 2020
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Option-Implied Correlations and the Price of Correlation Risk

Authors: Maenhout, Pascal; Driessen, Joost; Vilkov, Grigory;

Option-Implied Correlations and the Price of Correlation Risk

Abstract

Link to the paper: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2166829 The data contains option-implied and realized equicorrelation (IC and RC) estimates for S&P500 components from 1996 to 12/2019. We propose a direct and intuitive test by comparing option-implied correlations between stock returns (obtained by combining index option prices with prices of options on all index components) with realized correlations. Our parsimonious model shows that the substantial gap between average implied (39.5% for S&P500 and 46.0% for DJ30) and realized correlations (32.5% and 35.5%, respectively) is direct evidence of a large negative correlation risk premium. Empirical implementation of our model also indicates that the index variance risk premium can be attributed to the high price of correlation risk. Finally, we provide evidence that option-implied correlations have remarkable predictive power for future market returns, which also stays significant after controlling for a number of fundamental market return predictors.

Keywords

return predictability, implied correlation, market predictability, equity risk premium, correlation risk premium, realized correlation, risk

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
52
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 1%
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