
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2309945
handle: 10419/81922
Macroeconomic research often relies on structural vector autoregressions to uncover empirical regularities. Critics argue the method goes awry due to lag truncation: short lag-lengths imply a poor approximation to DSGE-models. Empirically, short lag-length is deemed necessary as increased parametrization induces excessive uncertainty. The paper shows that this argument is incomplete. Longer lag-length simultaneously reduces misspecification, which in turn reduces variance. For data generated by frontier DSGE-models long-lag VARs are feasible, reduce bias and variance, and have better coverage. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, the trivial solution to the critique actually works.
Truncation, VAR; SVAR; Lag-length; Truncation, ddc:330, E37, SVAR, C18, VAR, Lag-length, jel: jel:C18, jel: jel:E37
Truncation, VAR; SVAR; Lag-length; Truncation, ddc:330, E37, SVAR, C18, VAR, Lag-length, jel: jel:C18, jel: jel:E37
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