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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao International Journa...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
International Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Tracking World Trade and GDP in Real Time

Authors: GOLINELLI, ROBERTO; Giuseppe Parigi;

Tracking World Trade and GDP in Real Time

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple procedure to obtain monthly assessments of short-run perspectives for quarterly world GDP and trade. It combines emerging and advanced countries’ high frequency information to explain quarterly national accounts variables through bridge models. The union of all bridge equations leads to our world bridge model (WBM). The WBM econometric approach is new for two reasons: its equations combine traditional short-run bridging with theoretical level-relationships; it is the first time that forecasts of world GDP and trade are computed for advanced and emerging countries on the basis of a real-time database of 7,000 time series. Although the performance of the equations that are automatically searched for should be taken as a lower bound, results show a better WBM forecasting ability than the benchmark case and confirm the usefulness of combining WBM real-time forecasts with preliminary releases to improve the prediction of world trade. Finally, we show that the (unrealistic) use of revised data leads to a systematic overstatement of model forecasting performance.

Country
Italy
Keywords

World trade and GDP forecasts; Augmented bridge models; World bridge model; Real-time data, world trade and GDP forecasts, augmented bridge models, real-time data, forecasting ability, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:E37, jel: jel:F47

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
42
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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