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Model for Impact Assessment of the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund of the European Union in Bulgaria: SIBILA

Authors: Stefan Tsvetkov; Dimitar Vasilev; Kaloyan Ivanov Ganev; Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva; Peter Chobanov;

Model for Impact Assessment of the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund of the European Union in Bulgaria: SIBILA

Abstract

The English version of this paper can be found at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2290713Настоящата документация е разработена в рамките на проект „Разработване на иконометричен модел за оценка на въздействието на Структурните и Кохезионния фонд на Европейския съюз”. Документацията е неизменна част от разработения макроикономически модел за оценка на въздействието на Структурните и Кохезионния фонд в България.Целта на разработеният модел е да позволява оценката на ефектите от средствата от СКФ на ЕС върху основните макроикономически показатели. Принципите, методите, техниките и инструментите, описани в настоящата методология са в съответствие с практиките за оценка на въздействието в ЕС и съвременните подходи за макроикономическо моделиране.Моделът включва в себе си 170 уравнения, в т.ч. иконометрични оценки, макроикономически тъждества и калибрирани зависимости (на база стабилни исторически отношения и въз основа на съществуващото знание. Моделът е разработен в специализирана софтуерна среда (EViews 7.0), но самото използване на модела предполага единствено и само работа с електронни таблици (Excel). Това е постигнато с вградени в модела функция за автоматично изтегляне на входните данни от предварително подготвени електронни таблици, както и програмирана в модела възможност резултатите да бъдат експортирани в електронни таблици. Така на практика работата с модела се свежда до промяна на входните за модела данни в Excel (съгласно желанията на потребителя), стартиране на модела с помощта на специализирания софтуер EViews и отваряне на експортираните резултати в изходен документ в Excel.Моделът позволява проследяването на нетните ефекти от структурните фондове на различни нива на агрегация – от ниво цялостен ефект от всички средства до оценка на влиянието на всяка оперативна програма, приоритет и под-приоритет. По този начин може да бъде оценено влиянието на целева комбинация от структурни инструменти, включително и ефектите, наблюдавани при различни нива на усвояване на средствата.This technical documentation is prepared within the project “Development of econometric model for impact assessment of the EU Structural and Cohesion Funds”. The documentation is an indivisible part from the developed macroeconomic model for impact assessment of the Structural and Cohesion Funds in Bulgaria.The aim of the constructed model is to allow the assessment of the SCF resources impact on the main macroeconomic indicators. The principles, methods, techniques and the instruments, described in this documentation, correspond to the impact assessment practices in the EU and the modern approaches to macroeconomic modeling.The model consists of 170 equations, including econometric estimates, macroeconomic identities and calibrated dependencies (on the basis of stable historical links and applying existing knowledge). The model is developed in a specialised software environment (EViews 7.0) but the very use of the model requires work only with electronic tables (Excel). This is achieved by incorporating into the model function to automatically download input data from spreadsheets prepared and programmed the model possible results to be exported to spreadsheets. This effectively works with the model to change the input data for the model in Excel (according to the user's wishes), launch the model with the help of special software EViews and open the exported results in the output document in Excel.The model allows tracing the net effects from the structural funds at various levels of aggregation – from the full effect from all resources to impact assessment of each operational programme, priority and sub-priority. In this way, the effect of a target combination of structural instruments can be estimated, including the impact, observed at various levels of absorption of the funds.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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