
We sort currencies into portfolios by countries’ consumption growth over the past year. The excess return of the highest-consumption-growth currency portfolio over the portfolio of lowest-consumption-growth currencies is positive on average, compensating investors for large negative returns during world-wide downturns. This return – our consumption carry factor – prices the cross-section of portfolio-sorted and of bilateral currency returns. Our results rest on minimal theoretical restrictions but can be interpreted in a habit formation model: sorting currencies on past consumption growth approximates sorting countries based on risk aversion and low (high) risk-aversion currencies depreciate (appreciate) in times of global turmoil.
Consumption risk, Foreign exchange, uncovered interest parity, carry trade returns, consumption risk, asset pricing, habit model, 2002 Economics and Econometrics, Carry trade returns, ECON Department of Economics, Kapitalmarkttheorie, 10007 Department of Economics, carry trade returns, G12, foreign exchange, Zinsparität, Uncovered interest parity, F31, uncovered interest parity, ddc:330, G15, consumption risk, asset pricing, Asset pricing, Wechselkurs, 330 Economics, Foreign exchange, 2003 Finance, Portfoliomanagement, habit model, Habit model, foreign exchange, carry trade returns, consumption risk, asset pricing, E44, F44, Verbrauch, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:F44, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G15
Consumption risk, Foreign exchange, uncovered interest parity, carry trade returns, consumption risk, asset pricing, habit model, 2002 Economics and Econometrics, Carry trade returns, ECON Department of Economics, Kapitalmarkttheorie, 10007 Department of Economics, carry trade returns, G12, foreign exchange, Zinsparität, Uncovered interest parity, F31, uncovered interest parity, ddc:330, G15, consumption risk, asset pricing, Asset pricing, Wechselkurs, 330 Economics, Foreign exchange, 2003 Finance, Portfoliomanagement, habit model, Habit model, foreign exchange, carry trade returns, consumption risk, asset pricing, E44, F44, Verbrauch, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:F44, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G15
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