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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
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Discounting and Confidence

Authors: Traeger, Christian P.;

Discounting and Confidence

Abstract

The paper analyzes the discount rate under uncertainty. The analy- sis complements the probabilistic characterization of uncertainty by a measure of confidence. Special cases of the model comprise discounting under smooth am- biguity aversion as well as discounting under a disentanglement of risk aversion from aversion to intertemporal substitution. The paper characterizes the gen- eral class of preferences for which uncertainty implies a reduction of the discount rate. It also characterizes how the more comprehensive description of uncertainty changes the discount rate with respect to the standard model. The paper relates different results in the literature by switching between different risk measures. It presents a parametric extension of the Ramsey discounting formula that takes into account confidence into future growth estimates and a measure of aversion to the lack of confidence. If confidence decreases in the futurity of the growth forecast, the discount rates have a falling term structure even in the case of an iid growth process.

Country
United States
Related Organizations
Keywords

discounting, expected utility, uncertainty, discounting, climate change, ambiguity, confidence, subjective beliefs, prudence, pessimism, expected utility, intertemporal substitutability, intertemporal risk aversion, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, intertemporal substitutability, subjective beliefs, uncertainty, discounting, climate change, ambiguity, confidence, subjective beliefs, prudence, pessimism, expected utility, intertemporal substitutability, intertemporal risk aversion, climate change, intertemporal risk aversion, ambiguity, prudence, confidence, uncertainty, pessimism, jel: jel:D81, jel: jel:D90, jel: jel:D61, jel: jel:Q54

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze