
handle: 10419/70922
Recent literature has proposed new methods for measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions based on observed stock returns. In this paper we examine the reliability and robustness of such risk measures, focusing on CoVaR, marginal expected shortfall, and option-based tail risk estimates. We show that CoVaR exhibits undesired characteristics in the way it responds to idiosyncratic risk. In the presence of contagion, the risk measures provide conflicting signals on the systemic risk of infectious and infected banks. Finally, we explore how limited data availability typical of practical applications may limit the measures’ performance. We generate systemic tail risk through positions in standard index options and describe situations in which systemic risk is misestimated by the three measures. The observations raise doubts about the informativeness of the proposed measures. In particular, a direct application to regulatory capital surcharges for systemic risk could create wrong incentives for banks.
G28, CoVaR, Systemic Risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall, ddc:330, G21, Tail Risk, Systemic Risk,CoVaR,Marginal Expected Shortfall,Tail Risk, jel: jel:G28, jel: jel:G21
G28, CoVaR, Systemic Risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall, ddc:330, G21, Tail Risk, Systemic Risk,CoVaR,Marginal Expected Shortfall,Tail Risk, jel: jel:G28, jel: jel:G21
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 18 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
