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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Growth in India

Authors: Sanjai Bhagat; Pulak Ghosh; Srinivasan P. Rangan;

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Growth in India

Abstract

Economic and political commentators in India have repeatedly noted their concern about the recent slow-down in the Indian economy. Several recent papers have provided evidence that increase in the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has played a significant role in the slow-down and the increase in unemployment in the U.S. In this paper we construct a measure of economic policy uncertainty for India and study its impact on the Indian economy. We find Indian GDP and Indian fixed investment are negatively related to EPU in India. More relevant, the economic magnitudes of these relations are quite significant. For example, if the economic uncertainty in India were to decrease today to the level observed in 2005, India’s GDP growth would increase by 0.56%, and fixed investment growth would increase by 1.36%. Additionally, we document a negative correlation between the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) index and EPU in India.

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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
35
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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