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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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Was There a 'Greenspan Conundrum' in the Euro Area?

Authors: Lamé, Gildas;

Was There a 'Greenspan Conundrum' in the Euro Area?

Abstract

This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use a Near-Cointegrated VAR-like approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more accurate estimates of the term premium incorporated into the Eurozone's sovereign yield curve. I then look for notable episodes of the monetary cycle where long yields display a puzzling behavior vis-a-vis the short rate in contrast with the Expectation Hypothesis. The Euro-area bond market appears to have gone through its own "Greenspan conundrum" between January 1999 and August 2008. The term premium substantially contributed to these odd phenomena.

Keywords

Affine term structure models, unspanned macro risks, monetary policy, expectation hypothesis, term premium, Affine term structure models, Unspanned macro risks, Monetary policy, Expectation Hypothesis, Term Premium, Macroeconomy, Affine term structure models; Unspanned macro risks; Monetary policy; Expectation Hypothesis; Term Premium; Macroeconomy, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:E5, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:C5, jel: jel:E47, jel: jel:G12

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze