
handle: 10044/1/39815
© 2016. We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium-the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility-reflects the costs of insuring against currency volatility fluctuations. The strategy sells high insurance-cost currencies and buys low insurance-cost currencies. A distinctive feature of the strategy's returns is that they are mainly generated by movements in spot exchange rates instead of interest rate differentials. We explore explanations for the profitability of the strategy, which cannot be understood using traditional risk factors.
1502 Banking, 330, Economics, MODELS, 38 Economics, Social Sciences, HEDGE FUNDS, FOREIGN-CURRENCY RISK, CONSISTENT COVARIANCE-MATRIX, MARKETS, HG, CONSUMPTION GROWTH RISK, Finance And Investment, 3801 Applied Economics, Business & Economics, Business, Efficient currency portfolios, Volatility risk premium, 3502 Banking, Finance and Investment, Exchange rates, ARBITRAGE, Exchange Rate; Hedgers; Order Flow; Predictability; Speculators; Volatility Risk Premium, Predictability, RETURNS, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, 3802 Econometrics, OPTION PRICES, CROSS-SECTION, Finance, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G13, jel: jel:F37
1502 Banking, 330, Economics, MODELS, 38 Economics, Social Sciences, HEDGE FUNDS, FOREIGN-CURRENCY RISK, CONSISTENT COVARIANCE-MATRIX, MARKETS, HG, CONSUMPTION GROWTH RISK, Finance And Investment, 3801 Applied Economics, Business & Economics, Business, Efficient currency portfolios, Volatility risk premium, 3502 Banking, Finance and Investment, Exchange rates, ARBITRAGE, Exchange Rate; Hedgers; Order Flow; Predictability; Speculators; Volatility Risk Premium, Predictability, RETURNS, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, 3802 Econometrics, OPTION PRICES, CROSS-SECTION, Finance, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G13, jel: jel:F37
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