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Does the Macro Matter in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models?

Authors: Kwok Ping Tsang;

Does the Macro Matter in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models?

Abstract

In a simple macro-finance term structure (MFTS) model with macroeconomic variables as risk factors, it matters little whether an econometrician has a strong prior on a particular macroeconomic model. I show in a Monte Carlo experiment that econometricians with drastically different priors will reach similar conclusions on 1) parameters of the price of risk, 2) time series properties of risk premia and price of risk, and 3) impulse responses of the price of risk to macroeconomic shocks. The results imply that the choice of a macroeconomic model is immaterial to MFTS models, and a reduced-form VAR with no prior will do just as well. Moreover, the results suggest that MFTS models are not affected much by structural changes in the macro-economy.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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