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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Annals of Financial Economics
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Bayesian Estimation of Asymmetric Jump-Diffusion Processes

Authors: Frame, Samuel J.; Ramezani, Cyrus A.;

Bayesian Estimation of Asymmetric Jump-Diffusion Processes

Abstract

The hypothesis that asset returns are normally distributed has been widely rejected. The literature has shown that empirical asset returns are highly skewed and leptokurtic. The affine jump-diffusion (AJD) model improves upon the normal specification by adding a jump component to the price process. Two important extensions proposed by Ramezani and Zeng (1998) and Kou (2002) further improve the AJD specification by having two jump components in the price process, resulting in the asymmetric affine jump-diffusion (AAJD) specification. The AAJD specification allows the probability distribution of the returns to be asymmetrical. That is, the tails of the distribution are allowed to have different shapes and densities. The empirical literature on the "leverage effect" shows that the impact of innovations in prices on volatility is asymmetric: declines in stock prices are accompanied by larger increases in volatility than the reverse. The asymmetry in AAJD specification indirectly accounts for the leverage effect and is therefore more consistent with the empirical distributions of asset returns. As a result, the AAJD specification has been widely adopted in the portfolio choice, option pricing, and other branches of the literature. However, because of their complexity, empirical estimation of the AAJD models has received little attention to date. The primary objective of this paper is to contribute to the econometric methods for estimating the parameters of the AAJD models. Specifically, we develop a Bayesian estimation technique. We provide a comparison of the estimated parameters under the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) methodologies using the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and selected individual stocks. Focusing on the most recent spectacular market bust (2007–2009) and boom (2009–2010) periods, we examine how the parameter estimates differ under distinctly different economic conditions.

Country
United States
Keywords

Statistics and Probability, Asset price processes, affine jump-diffusion, double exponential jump-diffusion, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Bayesian econometrics, 330

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Average
Average
Average
bronze