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The Dark Side of Fiscal Stimulus

Authors: Trimborn, Timo; Strulik, Holger;

The Dark Side of Fiscal Stimulus

Abstract

Most of the discussion about fiscal stimulus focuses on the multiplier of gov- ernment spending on impact. In this paper we shift the focus to the multiplier at the end, i.e. to the period in which a deficit spending program terminates. We show that recent time series analyses as well as economic models of different schools of thought predict that the multiplier turns negative before spending expires. This means that aggregate output at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is predicted to be lower than it could be without deficit spending. We set up a simple model that explains this phenomenon. Using phase diagram analysis we prove that the aggregate capital stock at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it would be without the deficit spending program. This fact explains why aggregate output is below its laissez faire level as well. We then calibrate an extended version of the model for the US and demonstrate how fiscal stimulus slows down recovery from a recession in the medium-run.

Keywords

Konjunktur, fiscal stimulus, output multiplier, O40, Finanzpolitik, government spending, Fiscal stimulus, economic recovery, H30, fiscal stimulus; government spending; output multiplier; economic recovery, Real Business Cycle, H50, fiscal stimulus,government spending,output multiplier,economic recovery, fiscal stimulus, government spending, output multiplier, economic recovery, ddc:330, Multiplikator, E60, Öffentliche Ausgaben, Theorie, jel: jel:E60, jel: jel:O40, jel: jel:H30, jel: jel:H50

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze