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Sydney eScholarship
Research . 2009
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation

Authors: Singh, Aarti; Morley, James;

Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation

Abstract

Why did the volatility of U.S. real GDP decline by more than the volatility of final sales with the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s? One possible explanation is that firms shifted their inventory behaviour towards a greater emphasis on production smoothing. We investigate the role of inventories in the Great Moderation by estimating an unobserved components model that identifies inventory and sales shocks and their propagation in the aggregate data. Our findings suggest little evidence of increased production smoothing. Instead, a reduction in inventory mistakes explains the excess volatility reduction in output relative to sales. The inventory mistakes are informational errors related to production that must be set in advance and their reduction also helps to explain the changed forecasting role of inventories since the mid-1980s. Our findings provide an optimistic prognosis for the continuation of the Great Moderation despite the dramatic movements in output during the recent economic crisis.

Country
Australia
Related Organizations
Keywords

330, inventory mistakes, inventories, production smoothing, Great Moderation; inventories; production smoothing; informational errors; unobserved components model, Great Moderation, unobserved components model, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E22, jel: jel:C32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze