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Unemployment, Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Authors: Vichet Sum;

Unemployment, Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Abstract

This study examines how unemployment rate dynamically responds to shocks to consumer confidence, business confidence, inflation and monetary policy. Based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis of the monthly data from 1978:M2 to 2012:M5, the results show that unemployment negatively responds to shocks to consumer confidence and business confidence. While consumer confidence is not responsive to FED interest rate shock, business confidence negatively responds to FED fund interest rate shock. The results also show consumer confidence and business confidence Granger-cause unemployment, and inflation Granger-causes consumer confidence. However, inflation and Fed Fund interest rate do not Granger-cause unemployment movement. For the 12-month horizon, the unemployment forecast error is 71% due to its own shock, 11% due to consumer confidence shock, 13% due to business confidence shock, 1.10% due to inflation shock, and 3% due to Fed Fund interest rate shock.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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