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Energy Economics
Article
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Energy Economics
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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Research . 2012
License: CC BY NC ND
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Downside Risk and the Energy Hedger's Horizon

Authors: Conlon, Thomas; Cotter, John;

Downside Risk and the Energy Hedger's Horizon

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we explore the impact of investor time-horizon on an optimal downside hedged energy portfolio. The optimal heating oil hedge ratio is first calculated for a variety of downside risk objective functions at different time-horizons using the wavelet transform. Next, associated hedging effectiveness is contrasted for a range of risk metrics, with all metrics showing increasing hedging effectiveness at longer horizons. Moreover, decreased hedging effectiveness is demonstrated for increased levels of uncertainty at higher confidence intervals. While small differences in effectiveness are found across the different hedging objectives, time-horizon effects are found to dominate confirming the importance of the hedging horizon. The findings suggest that while downside risk measures are useful in determining an optimal futures hedge encompassing negative returns, hedging horizon and confidence intervals should also be given careful consideration by the energy hedger.

Country
Ireland
Keywords

Energy hedging, Downside risk, Wavelets (Mathematics), Futures hedging, 510, Energy Hedging, Futures Hedging, Wavelet Transform, Hedging Horizon, Downside Risk, Hedging horizon, Wavelet transform, Hedging (Finance), Financial risk management

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
39
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze