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Efficient Market Hypothesis: Limiti della Teoria Classica (Efficient Market Hypothesis: Limits of the Classical Theory)

Authors: Francesco Barbato;

Efficient Market Hypothesis: Limiti della Teoria Classica (Efficient Market Hypothesis: Limits of the Classical Theory)

Abstract

Il principio della diversificazione rappresenta uno dei concetti fondamentali di cui si avvale la teoria della finanza. La sua applicazione in materia di gestione professionale di un portafoglio titoli costituisce una scelta obbligata. Il problema della ottimizzazione della struttura di portafoglio e collegato a quello della efficienza del mercato: l’accettazione (o, per contro, il rifiuto) dell’assioma dell’efficienza condiziona ovvero le strategie di asset allocation.Di recente, voci autorevoli hanno cominciato a sollevare perplessita circa il concreto funzionamento della Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Le ipotesi a fondamento della teoria appaiono infatti eccessivamente restrittive: e ipotizzabile un soggetto economico che, istante per istante, massimizzi la propria funzione di utilita attesa? E ancora, e immaginabile l’esistenza sui mercati di operatori finanziari – perfettamente razionali – in grado di interpretare oggettivamente il complesso set informativo che definisce, tempo per tempo, lo scenario macroeconomico di riferimento? In realta, non sempre il comportamento dei mercati finanziari appare in linea con quanto postulato dall’approccio metodologico classico. Gli attori di mercato non sembrano infatti identificarsi con l’homo oeconomicus perfettamente razionale prospettato dalla teoria tradizionale. L’evidenza empirica mostra inoltre l’esistenza di “modelli ripetuti di irrazionalita ed incoerenza' nel modo in cui i soggetti assumono decisioni in condizioni di incertezza.Se dunque e possibile dimostrare che i soggetti economici assumono sovente atteggiamenti non propriamente riconducibili alla logica bayesiana e tendono anzi ad 'ancorarsi' a modelli comportamentali che contribuiscono alla instabilita sistemica e se le ipotesi sottostanti alla EMH sembrano non aver riscontro nella realta, e inevitabile che emergano perplessita circa la validita dell’approccio metodologico classico.Diversification is one of the fundamental concepts used in finance. Its application by professional managers of securities portfolios is an obvious choice. Optimization of a portfolio’s structure is linked to market efficiency: the acceptance (or the rejection) of the "efficiency axiom" affects asset allocation strategies.Recently, authoritative voices have began to raise doubts about the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The behavior of financial markets is not always in line with what is required by the classic theory. Market participants do not appear to identify with the perfectly rational homo economicus postulated by the classical theory. The empirical evidence also shows the existence of "repeated patterns of irrationality and incoherence" in the way in which investors make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Therefore, if it can be shown that economic actors don’t always follow bayesian logic and if the underlying assumptions of the EMH seem too far from reality, than doubts arise about the validity of the classical theory.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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