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Spurious Dynamic Conditional Correlation

Authors: Roland Füss; Thorsten W. Glück;

Spurious Dynamic Conditional Correlation

Abstract

Autoregressive-type multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have been widely adopted by scholars to measure time-varying correlation structures. It is a well-known stylized fact that conditional correlations generated by these models tend to exhibit a highly unstable and erratic behavior under certain conditions. Therefore, the value added of these scientifically demanding MGARCH techniques remains sometimes ambiguous. In this paper, we provide a measure for the autocovariance structure of conditional correlations generated by a DCC MGARCH under the assumption that true conditional correlations are constant. This allows us to formally demonstrate that autocovariances of conditional correlations generated by an autoregressive-type MGARCH model are highly sensitive to small changes in model parameters. We provide empirical evidence for the impact of parameter changes on forecasting accuracy and show under which conditions a simple rolling window estimator yields superior results.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
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