Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ SSRN Electronic Jour...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
versions View all 3 versions
addClaim

Misperceptions, Heterogeneous Expectations and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Authors: Tim Taylor; Richard Harrison;

Misperceptions, Heterogeneous Expectations and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Abstract

We investigate the extent to which misperceptions about the economy can become self-reinforcing and thereby contribute to time-varying macroeconomic dynamics. To do so, we build a New Keynesian model with long-horizon expectations and dynamic predictor selection. Because agents solve multi-period optimisation problems (households maximise expected lifetime utility and firms maximise the discounted flow of future profits), their current decisions are influenced by expectations of the distant future and cannot in general be characterised by the familiar Euler equations that represent the rational expectations equilibrium of these models. We assume that agents have access to a set of alternative predictors that can be used to form expectations and choose among them based on noisy measures of their recent performance. This dynamic predictor selection generates endogenous fluctuations in the proportions of agents using each predictor, contributing to macroeconomic dynamics. We explore the behaviour of our model when agents have access to two simple predictors. One of the predictors is consistent with a mistaken belief that macroeconomic variables are more persistent than implied by the fundamental shocks hitting the economy. We show that the presence of a ‘persistent predictor’ can lead to changes in beliefs which are self-reinforcing, giving rise to endogenous fluctuations in the time-series properties of the economy. Moreover, we show that such fluctuations arise even if we replace the ‘persistent predictor’ with learning under constant gain.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Expectations; macroeconomic dynamics; heuristics, jel: jel:E17, jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:D82

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    1
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze