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Long-Term Volatility Forecasting

Authors: Nicholas Reitter;

Long-Term Volatility Forecasting

Abstract

A variety of historical-volatility, peer-historical-volatility, implied-volatility and blended estimators of stock price volatility are developed and tested for a group of large U.S. companies over roughly a thirty-year window. Longer-term historical estimators (up to fifteen years) are found to outperform shorter-term estimators as forecasts of five- to seven-year realized volatility. Inclusion of implied volatility into forecasts at low weightings is found to have little discernible effect on overall results; at higher weightings, implied volatility appears actually to detract modestly from forecast accuracy. Nevertheless, certain correlations show that implied volatility may contribute strongly toward forecasting volatility in some situations. Finally, patterns of apparently-cyclical variation in historical forecast-errors are presented for exploration and inclusion in potential future modeling.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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