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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2012
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Conocophillips’ Share Price Model Revisited

Authors: Ivan Kitov;

Conocophillips’ Share Price Model Revisited

Abstract

Three years ago we found a statistically reliable link between ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) stock price and the difference between the core and headline CPI in the United States. In this article, the original relationship is revisited with new data available since 2009. The agreement between the observed monthly closing price (adjusted for dividends and splits) and that predicted from the CPI difference is confirmed. The original quantitative link is validated. In order to improve the accuracy of the COP price prediction a series of advanced models is developed. The original set of two major CPIs is extended by smaller components of the headline CPIs (e.g. the CPIs of motor fuel and housing energy) and several PPIs (e.g. the PPIs of crude oil and coal) which may be inherently related to ConocoPhillips and other energy companies. These advanced models have demonstrated much lower modeling errors with better statistical properties. The earlier reported quasi-linear trend in the CPI difference is also revisited. This trend allows for an accurate prediction of the COP prices at a five to ten year horizon.

10 pages, 10 Figures

Related Organizations
Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, stock price, ConocoPhillips, prediction, CPI, Quantitative Finance - General Finance, General Finance (q-fin.GN), jel: jel:G1, jel: jel:E3

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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bronze