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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2018
Data sources: EconStor
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Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium

Authors: Jianjun Miao; Bin Wei; Hao Zhou;

Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium

Abstract

This paper oers an ambiguity-based interpretation of variance premium— the dier- ence between risk-neutral and objective expectations of market return variance— as a com- pounding eect of both belief distortion and variance dierential regarding the uncertain economic regimes. Our approach endogenously generates variance premium without impos- ing exogenous stochastic volatility or jumps in consumption process. Such a framework can reasonably match the mean variance premium as well as the mean equity premium, equity volatility, and the mean risk-free rate in the data. We …nd that about 96 percent of the mean variance premium can be attributed to ambiguity aversion. Applying the model to historical consumption data, we …nd that variance premium mostly captures depressions, deep recessions, and …nancial panics, with a post war peak in 2009.

Related Organizations
Keywords

ambiguity aversion, learning, ddc:330, G13, regime shift, Ambiguity aversion, learning, variance premium, regime-shift, belief distortion, variance premium, belief distortion, D81, E44, G12, jel: jel:D81, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G13

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    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    15
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Average
Average
Top 10%
bronze