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Probability Weighting and Asset Prices

Authors: Maik Dierkes;

Probability Weighting and Asset Prices

Abstract

In the present paper, we estimate a monthly index of aggregate skewness preference. This index is derived from the representative agent's nonparametric probability weighting function. Consistent with findings from lab experiments, probability weighting functions depend on sentiment and their average is inverse-S shaped. Induced skewness preference varies over time and explains the size (value) premium over and above three (two) Fama and French factors and a momentum factor. Closed-end fund discounts signal a desire to underdiversify during times of high skewness preference. Higher skewness preference leads to more low quality IPOs with higher delisting probability.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Average
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