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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2012
Data sources: EconStor
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Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times Using the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters

Authors: Koop, Gary; Onorante, Luca;

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times Using the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters

Abstract

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric specification. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neoclassical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Keywords

Survey of Professional Forecasters, 330, inflation expectations, ddc:330, Bayesian, financial crisis, inflation expectations, Phillips curve, Survey of Professional Forecasters, financial crisis, Phillips curve, HB, Bayesian, C53, Economic Theory, E31, C11

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze