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Black Swans are Not that Black

Authors: Valentyn Khokhlov;

Black Swans are Not that Black

Abstract

Some researchers have recently criticized using the normal distribution for modeling stock returns. While it’s true that the normal distribution is inappropriate and leads to the extreme outliers, known as the Black Swans problem, other elliptical distributions allow addressing this issue. The Student’s t-distribution with 3 to 4 degrees of freedom and the Laplace distribution both can be used to largely eliminate Black Swans in daily returns. Both distributions are compatible with the modern portfolio theory. We also show that no single distribution is clearly preferred when describing periodic returns, but the Black Swans problem is not so acute when considering returns over holding periods longer than one month.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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