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Return Dispersion and the Predictability of Stock Returns

Authors: Paulo F. Maio;

Return Dispersion and the Predictability of Stock Returns

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether stock return dispersion (cross-sectional variance of equity portfolio returns) provides useful information about future stock returns, both at the aggregate and portfolio levels. Return dispersion consistently forecasts a decline in the (excess) stock market return, and compares favorably with alternative predictors. Furthermore, return dispersion outperforms the alternative variables in forecasting the (excess) market return out-of-sample. The results from both in-sample and out-of-sample regressions show that return dispersion has greater forecasting power for large and growth stocks compared to small and value stocks, respectively. Return dispersion also helps to forecast stock market volatility at short horizons.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
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