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The Power of Sunspots: An Experimental Analysis

Authors: Fehr, D; Heinemann, F; Llorente-Saguer, A;

The Power of Sunspots: An Experimental Analysis

Abstract

This paper presents an experiment on a coordination game with extrinsic random signals, in which we systematically vary the stochastic process generating these signals and measure how signals affect behavior. We find that sunspot equilibria emerge naturally if there are salient public signals. However, highly correlated private signals can also lead to sunspot-driven behavior, even when this is not an equilibrium. Private signals reduce the power of public signals as sunspot variables. The higher the correlation of extrinsic signals and the more easily they can be aggregated, the more powerful these signals are in distracting actions from the action that minimizes strategic uncertainty.

Countries
United Kingdom, Germany
Keywords

Test, Koordination, Gleichgewicht, 330, coordination games,strategic uncertainty,sunspot equilibria,irrelevant information, Human behavior, forward guidance, C72, coordination games, strategic uncertainty, sunspot equilibria, irrelevant information, C92, sunspot equilibria, C9, strategic uncertainty, Coordination games, E58, Coordination games; strategic uncertainty; sunspot equilibria; forward guidance; expectations, ddc:330, Strategic uncertainty, 330 Wirtschaft, Forward guidance, E39, Sunspot, irrelevant information, Expectations, D82, D83, Nichtkooperatives Spiel, D84, Sunspot equilibria, coordination games, D5, expectations, jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:C92, jel: jel:C72

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
hybrid