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Stochastic Forecast of Mortality Effects

Authors: Michael Ortmann;

Stochastic Forecast of Mortality Effects

Abstract

In this study we propose a stochastic mortality forecast model that may be viewed as a Levy process. First, age, period and cohort effects are objectively identified in a given matrix of historic mortality data. Next, these patterns are removed from the matrix of mortality improvement rates. We then forecast residual mortality development factors by applying a non-parametric block bootstrap simulation. Finally, future age, period and cohort effects are superimposed on a simulation basis. In a retrospective study we apply several backtests in order to evaluate ex-post predictive power of our model. Moreover, we evaluate plausibility of ex-ante forecasts. Notably, our stochastic mortality model is capable of generating specific stress scenarios such as mortality shocks. In this respect, our forecast model may be particularly useful for Solvency II purposes.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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