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Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach

Authors: Knut Are Aastveit; Karsten R. Gerdrup; Anne Sofie Jore; Leif Anders Thorsrud;

Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach

Abstract

In this article, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for nowcasting. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP growth increase almost monotonically, as new information arrives during the quarter. While the ranking of the model classes changes during the quarter, the combined density nowcasts always perform well relative to the model classes in terms of both logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.

Country
Norway
Related Organizations
Keywords

VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, monetary policy, Forecast densities, Density combination; Forecast densities; Forecast evaluation; Monetary policy; Nowcasting; Real-time data, nowcasting, Forecast evaluation, Monetary policy, C52, Nowcasting, C53, real-time data, C32, E52, density combination, forecast densities, ddc:330, E37, Real-time data, Density combination, forecast evaluation, JEL: C32, JEL: E52, JEL: C53, JEL: C52, JEL: E37, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E37

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    93
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
93
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze