
In this article, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for nowcasting. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP growth increase almost monotonically, as new information arrives during the quarter. While the ranking of the model classes changes during the quarter, the combined density nowcasts always perform well relative to the model classes in terms of both logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.
VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, monetary policy, Forecast densities, Density combination; Forecast densities; Forecast evaluation; Monetary policy; Nowcasting; Real-time data, nowcasting, Forecast evaluation, Monetary policy, C52, Nowcasting, C53, real-time data, C32, E52, density combination, forecast densities, ddc:330, E37, Real-time data, Density combination, forecast evaluation, JEL: C32, JEL: E52, JEL: C53, JEL: C52, JEL: E37, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E37
VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, monetary policy, Forecast densities, Density combination; Forecast densities; Forecast evaluation; Monetary policy; Nowcasting; Real-time data, nowcasting, Forecast evaluation, Monetary policy, C52, Nowcasting, C53, real-time data, C32, E52, density combination, forecast densities, ddc:330, E37, Real-time data, Density combination, forecast evaluation, JEL: C32, JEL: E52, JEL: C53, JEL: C52, JEL: E37, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E37
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 93 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
