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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0...
Part of book or chapter of book . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.34989/sw...
Other literature type . 2011
Data sources: Datacite
EconStor
Research . 2011
Data sources: EconStor
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Forecasting the Price of Oil

Authors: Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J.;

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Abstract

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries?

Keywords

Q43, ddc:330, Asymmetries; Demand and supply; Forecasting; Oil price; Predictability, Q47, Petroleum products - Prices ; Econometric models, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Prognoseverfahren, C53, Ölpreis, Statistische Methode, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:Q43

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    237
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
237
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
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