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Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus

Authors: Pietro Cova; Massimiliano Pisani; Alessandro Rebucci;

Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of Chinas 2009-2010 fiscal stimulus package by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model of the world economy, showing that the effects on Chinas economic activity are sizeable: absent fiscal stimulus Chinas GDP would be 2.6 and 0.6 percentage points lower in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The effects are stronger under a US dollar peg because of the imported loose monetary policy stance from the United States. Higher Chinese aggregate demand stimulates higher (gross and net) imports from other regions, in particular from Japan and the rest of the world, and, only to a lesser extent, from the United States and the euro area. However, the overall GDP impact of the Chinese stimulus on the rest of the world is limited. These results warn that a fiscal policydriven increase in Chinas domestic aggregate demand associated with a more flexible exchange rate regime have only a limited potential to contribute to an orderly resolution of global trade and financial imbalances.

Keywords

Financial Crises & Economic Stabilization, Fiscal Policy, IDB-WP-211, China, ddc:330, Finanzkrise, Financial crisis, Financial Crises & Structural Adjustement, Fiscal Policy, IDB-WP-211, Fiscal stimulus, Financial crisis, Fiscal stimulus, H30, H63, Antizyklische Finanzpolitik, E62, F41, Makroökonomischer Einfluss, F42, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:F42, jel: jel:H30, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:F41

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    popularity
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    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Average
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze