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The Aggregate Earnings-Return Relationship: A Global Perspective

Authors: Andrew Vivian; Xiaoquan Jiang;

The Aggregate Earnings-Return Relationship: A Global Perspective

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between aggregate earnings and returns (ERC) in a global context. We examine a broad international sample of countries which encompass markets with different levels of stock market development, shareholder protection and legal origin. Recent literature finds a puzzlingly negative relationship between aggregate earnings and aggregate returns in the US (Kothari, Lewellen and Warner, 2006; Sadka and Sadka, 2009). Our first main finding is that this puzzlingly negative relationship is not universal. The relationship between aggregate earnings and each return component (Campbell, 1991) is examined. Empirical results suggest each of these three components play a role in explaining the overall ERC. In particular, we find that cash flow news and discount rate news are both individually important determinants of the earnings-return relationship but they generally offset each other. The expected earnings-return relation also contributes to the aggregate earnings-return coefficient; this effect varies substantially across countries. The dispersion of aggregate ERC across countries is weakly associated with stock market development, shareholder protection and legal origin.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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