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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2011
Data sources: EconStor
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Higher Order Expectations, Illiquidity, and Short-Term Trading

Authors: Xavier Vives; Giovanni Cespa;

Higher Order Expectations, Illiquidity, and Short-Term Trading

Abstract

When trading frequencies between liquidity traders and short term, heterogeneously informed investors differ, asset prices reflect Higher Order Expectations (HOEs) about both fundamentals and liquidity trading, and multiple, self-fulfilling equilibria arise. Differential information and heterogeneous trading frequencies make illiquidity dependent on a coordination problem across generations of investors and generate liquidity risk. If asset prices are driven by HOEs about fundamentals, they heavily rely on public information and the market displays high illiquidity; if HOEs about fundamentals are subdued, prices rely less on public information and the market displays low illiquidity. Along the equilibrium with low illiquidity, the volume of informational trading is high, and momentum arises at short horizons. Conversely, along the equilibrium with high illiquidity the volume of informational trading is low and short term returns tend to revert. At long horizons reversal occurs.

Keywords

over-reliance on public information, Beauty Contest, Marktliquidität, Kapitalertrag, Expected returns; multiple equilibria; average expectations; over-reliance on public information; beauty contest;, multiple equilibria, Expected returns, multiple equilibria, average expectations, over-reliance on public information, Beauty Contest., Informationsverhalten, G10, G12, ddc:330, G14, average expectations, Wertpapierhandel, Börsenkurs, Erwartungstheorie, expected returns, Theorie, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G10, jel: jel:G14

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze