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Illiquidity and Earnings Predictability

Authors: Jon N. Kerr; Gil Sadka; Ronnie Sadka;

Illiquidity and Earnings Predictability

Abstract

This paper studies whether illiquidity affects the predictability of fundamental valuation variables. Firm-level, cross-sectional analyses show that returns of illiquid stocks contain less information about their firm's future earnings growth compared to those of more liquid stocks. A natural experiment utilizing an exogenous variation in liquidity amid the reduction of tick size on the NYSE indicates that an improvement in liquidity causes an increase in earnings predictability. At the aggregate level, stock returns contain less information about future growth in aggregate earnings, GNP, and industrial production during illiquid periods. The results highlight the importance of liquidity for forecasting fundamentals and stock-price efficiency.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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