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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
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Mitigating the Pro-Cyclicality of Basel II

Authors: Rafael Repullo; Jesús Saurina; Carlos Trucharte;

Mitigating the Pro-Cyclicality of Basel II

Abstract

This paper compares alternative procedures to mitigate the procyclicality of the new risk-sensitive bank capital regulation (Basel II). We estimate a model of the probabilities of default (PDs) of Spanish firms during the period 1987-2008, and use the estimated PDs to compute the corresponding series of Basel II capital requirements per unit of loans. These requirements move significantly along the business cycle, ranging from 7.6% (in 2006) to 11.9% (in 1993). The comparison of the different procedures is based on the criterion of minimizing the root mean square deviations of each smoothed series with respect to the Hodrick-Prescott trend of the original series. The results show that the best procedures are either to smooth the inputs of the Basel II formula by using through-the-cycle PDs or to smooth the output with a multiplier based on GDP growth. Our discussion concludes that the latter is better in terms of simplicity, transparency, and consistency with banks’ risk pricing and risk management systems. For the portfolio of Spanish commercial and industrial loans and a 45% loss given default (LGD), the multiplier would amount to a 6.5% surcharge for each standard deviation in GDP growth. The surcharge would be significantly higher with cyclically-varying LGDs.

Keywords

Bank capital regulation, Basel II, Pro-cyclicality, Business cycles, Credit crunch, Bank capital regulation; Basel II; Business cycles; Credit crunch; Procyclicality, jel: jel:G28, jel: jel:E32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
bronze