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Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2010
Data sources: EconStor
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Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys

Authors: Christian Dreger; Konstantin A. Kholodilin;

Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys

Abstract

ABSTRACTSurvey‐based indicators are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity. As such, consumer confidence might be informative for the future path of private consumption. Although the indicators receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power often appears to be very limited. This paper takes a fresh look at the data that serve as a basis for the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) reported by the EU Commission for the euro area. Different pooling methods are applied to exploit the survey information. Forecasts are based on mixed data sampling (MIDAS) and bridge equations. While the CCI does not outperform the autoregressive benchmark, the new indicators are able to raise forecasting performance. The best performing indicator should be built upon pre‐selection methods. Data‐driven aggregation methods should be preferred to determine the weights of the individual ingredients. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords

mixed frequency data, ddc:330, Italien, Frankreich, Consumer confidence, nowcasting, Consumer confidence, consumption, nowcasting, mixed frequency data, EU-Staaten, consumption, Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum, Prognoseverfahren, Deutschland, C22, E21, Konsumklima, jel: jel:E21, jel: jel:C22

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze