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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2010
Data sources: EconStor
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Fear of Model Misspecification and the Robustness Premium

Authors: Konstantinos Angelopoulos; Jim Malley;

Fear of Model Misspecification and the Robustness Premium

Abstract

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker's ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we find that while increasing the fear of model misspecification leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

Keywords

ddc:330, robustness premium, Modell-Spezifikation, Kontrolltheorie, Allgemeines Gleichgewicht, robustness premium, model misspecification, precautionary behavior, Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit, Wirtschaftspolitik, Robustes Verfahren, precautionary behavior, model misspecification, Mehr-Sektoren-Modell, Theorie

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze