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Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
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Journal of International Economics
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
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International Bond Risk Premia

Authors: Dahlquist, Magnus; Hasseltoft, Henrik;

International Bond Risk Premia

Abstract

We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that are poorly spanned by the cross-section of yields but have strong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global factors are jointly signicant predictors of bond returns, where the global factor is closely linked to US bond risk premia and international business cycles. Motivated by our results, we estimate a no-arbitrage ane term structure model for each country in which movements in risk premia are driven by one local and one global factor. Yield loadings for the two factors are estimated to be close to zero while shocks to risk premia account for a small fraction of yield variance. This suggests that the cross-section of yields conveys little information about the return-forecasting factors. We show that shocks to global risk premia cause osetting movements in expected returns and expected future short-term interest rates, leaving current yields little affected. Furthermore, correlations between international bond risk premia have increased over time, indicating an increase in integration between markets.

Country
Switzerland
Keywords

10003 Department of Finance, Affine model, local and global factors, time-varying risk premia, 2002 Economics and Econometrics, 330 Economics, 2003 Finance, time-varying risk premia, varying risk premia, Affine model, local and global factors, time, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G15

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    96
    popularity
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    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
96
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze