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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2010
Data sources: EconStor
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Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis

Authors: Peer, S.; Koopmans, C.; Verhoef, E.T.;

Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis

Abstract

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are not taken into account in many cost-benefit-analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules on how variability can be predicted, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. The paper uses two different concepts of travel time variability. They differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of the day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to re ect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor of variability. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of travel time variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed trafic 'regimes' (free- ow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can be used as an approximation.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

R40, R41, 330, R42, ddc:330, Travel time variability, Cost-benefit analysis, Verkehrsverhalten, Autobahn, Transportzeit, Travel time variability; Cost-benefit analysis; Mean-variance approach, Mean-variance approach, Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse, Niederlande, jel: jel:R42, jel: jel:R41, jel: jel:R40

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Average
Top 10%
Average
bronze