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Intra-Day-Patterns in the Colombian Exchange Market Index and VAR: Evaluation of Different Approaches

Intraday-patterns in the colombian exchange market index and var: evaluation of different approaches
Authors: Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César; Serna Cortés, Manuel;

Intra-Day-Patterns in the Colombian Exchange Market Index and VAR: Evaluation of Different Approaches

Abstract

Summary: This paper evaluates the performance of 16 different parametric, non-parametric and one semi-parametric specifications to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) for the Colombian Exchange Market Index (IGBC). Using high frequency data (10-minute returns), we model the variance of the returns using GARCH and TGARCH models, that take in account the leverage effect, the day-of-the-week effect, and the hour-of-the-day effect. We estimate those models under two assumptions regarding returns behavior: Normal distribution and t distribution. This exercise is performed using two different ten-minute intraday samples: 2006-2007 and 2008-2009. For the first sample, we found that the best model is a \(TGARCH(1,1)\) without day-of the week or hour-of-the-day effects. For the 2008-2009 sample, we found that the model with the correct conditional VaR coverage would be the \(GARCH(1,1)\) with the day-of-the-week effect, and the hour-of-the-day effect. Both methods perform better under the t distribution assumption.

Country
Colombia
Related Organizations
Keywords

GARCH, 330, Economics, Statistics, finance, finanzas, Finanzas, Apalancamiento, Econonomía, rendimientos financieros, Risk estimation, GARCH model, HA1-4737, Stock returns, apalancamiento, stock returns, Estimación de riesgo, risk estimation, leverage, estimación de riesgo, Leverage, Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold