
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1616252
handle: 10906/79122
Summary: This paper evaluates the performance of 16 different parametric, non-parametric and one semi-parametric specifications to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) for the Colombian Exchange Market Index (IGBC). Using high frequency data (10-minute returns), we model the variance of the returns using GARCH and TGARCH models, that take in account the leverage effect, the day-of-the-week effect, and the hour-of-the-day effect. We estimate those models under two assumptions regarding returns behavior: Normal distribution and t distribution. This exercise is performed using two different ten-minute intraday samples: 2006-2007 and 2008-2009. For the first sample, we found that the best model is a \(TGARCH(1,1)\) without day-of the week or hour-of-the-day effects. For the 2008-2009 sample, we found that the model with the correct conditional VaR coverage would be the \(GARCH(1,1)\) with the day-of-the-week effect, and the hour-of-the-day effect. Both methods perform better under the t distribution assumption.
GARCH, 330, Economics, Statistics, finance, finanzas, Finanzas, Apalancamiento, Econonomía, rendimientos financieros, Risk estimation, GARCH model, HA1-4737, Stock returns, apalancamiento, stock returns, Estimación de riesgo, risk estimation, leverage, estimación de riesgo, Leverage, Finance
GARCH, 330, Economics, Statistics, finance, finanzas, Finanzas, Apalancamiento, Econonomía, rendimientos financieros, Risk estimation, GARCH model, HA1-4737, Stock returns, apalancamiento, stock returns, Estimación de riesgo, risk estimation, leverage, estimación de riesgo, Leverage, Finance
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