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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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The Month-of-The-Year Effect: Evidence from GARCH Models in Fifty Five Stock Markets

Authors: GİOVANİS, Eleftherios;

The Month-of-The-Year Effect: Evidence from GARCH Models in Fifty Five Stock Markets

Abstract

This paper studies the month of the year effect, where January effect presents positive and the highest returns of the other months of the year. In order to investigate the specific calendar effect in global level, fifty five stock market indices from fifty one countries are examined. Symmetric GARCH models are applied and based on asymmetries tests asymmetric GARCH models are estimated. The main findings of this study is that a December effect is found on twenty stock markets, with higher returns on the specific month, while February effect is presented in nine stock markets, followed by January and April effects in seven and six stock markets respectively. These patterns provide positive and highest returns on the mentioned months, while a pattern where a specific month gives a persistence signal of negative returns couldn’t be found.

Keywords

Asymmetric GARCH models;Asymmetry Tests;Calendar Effects;January Effect;Month of the Year Effect;Seasonality, seasonality, stock returns, calendar effects, month of the year effect, asymmetric GARCH models, asymmetry tests, January effect, Asimetrik GARCH modelleri;Asimetri testleri;Takvim anomalileri etkisi;Ocak etkisi;Yılın ayı etkisi;Mevsimsellik, jel: jel:G14, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:G11

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
bronze