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Forecasting with DSGE Models

Authors: Christoffel, Kai; Warne, Anders; Coenen, Günter;

Forecasting with DSGE Models

Abstract

AbstractThis article reviews and illustrates the methodology of forecasting with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using Bayesian methods. It discusses an algorithm for estimating the predictive distribution of the observed variables based on draws from the posterior distribution of the DSGE model parameters and simulation of future paths for the variables with the model. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 sketches the new area-wide model (NAWM) and briefly reports on its empirical implementation. Section 3 discusses how the predictive distribution of a DSGE model can be estimated and then presents the alternative forecasting models that are used in the empirical analysis. Section 4 covers the forecast evaluation of the NAWM, focusing first on point forecasts and then on density forecasts. Section 5 summarizes the main findings and concludes.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Dynamisches Gleichgewicht, open-economy macroeconomics, VAR-Modell, ddc:330, E37, Bayesian inference, forecasting, euro area, Bayesian inference, DSGE Models, euro area, forecasting, open-economy macroeconomics, Vector autoregression, DSGE models, Vector autoregression, Bayes-Statistik, vector autoregression, EU-Staaten, Prognoseverfahren, Eurozone, C32, DSGE Models, C11, Offene Volkswirtschaft, E32

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
40
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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