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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2010
Data sources: EconStor
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Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility

Authors: Agnieszka Markiewicz;

Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract

This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard present value exchange rate models. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with the model uncertainty by making inference on the models and their parameters - a mechanism I call model learning. I show how model learning may lead agents to focus excessively on a subset of fundamental variables. As a result, exchange rate volatility is mainly determined by the dynamics of this subset of fundamentals. As agents switch between models the nominal exchange rate volatility varies accordingly even though the underlying fundamentals processes remain time-invariant. I investigate the relevance of this result empirically within the Taylor-rule based exchange rate model applied to the British Pound/US Dollar exchange rate. The results suggest that the observed change in volatility was triggered by a shift between models.

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Keywords

Wirtschaftsmodell, ddc:330, Taylor-Regel, Devisenhandel, monetary policy, Großbritannien, exchange rate economics, Monetäre Wechselkurstheorie, Wechselkurs, Volatilität, exchange rate economics, monetary policy, model uncertainty, Anlageverhalten, E44, model uncertainty, Risiko, F41, USA, F31, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:F41

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze