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Journal of Forecasting
Article . 1999 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 1998 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data

Authors: MARCELLINO, MASSIMILIANO; G. Gallo;

Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data

Abstract

In this paper we suggest a framework to assess the degree of reliability of provisional estimates as forecasts of final data, and we reexamine the question of the most appropriate way in which available data should be used for ex ante forecasting in the presence of a data revision process. Various desirable properties for provisional data are suggested, as well as procedures for testing them, taking into account the possible nonstationarity of economic variables. For illustration, the methodology is applied to assess the quality of the US M1 data production process and to derive a conditional model whose performance in forecasting is then tested against other alternatives based on simple transformations of provisional data or of past final data.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Data revisions; Forecasting; Money supply; Structural breaks;

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze