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Noise in Stock Returns as Natural Experiments: Forward- and Backward-Looking Market-Betas, Momentum, and Reversals

Authors: Gerard Hoberg; Ivo Welch;

Noise in Stock Returns as Natural Experiments: Forward- and Backward-Looking Market-Betas, Momentum, and Reversals

Abstract

Market-beta, momentum, and 1-month-reversal are statistics computed from historical stock-returns. However, when a stock has experienced unusually noisy rates of return (e.g., a rare extreme stock return), ignoring this noise should yield a better estimate of the future statistic than the actual historical statistic. The standard method to do this, at least in the context of market-betas, is Stein shrinkage (vasicek:1973). Our paper exploits the wedge between the two statistics: If investors care about the forward-looking aspect of a measure, then it is the shrunk statistic that should predict future stock returns. If investors care about the backward-looking "characteristics" aspect of a measure, then it is the unshrunk actual historical statistic that should predict future stock returns. We find: [1] Market-beta contains a backward-looking aspect that has a negative influence on future stock returns. This distorts the positive signal in the forward-looking (likely hedging-related) aspect of market-beta. [2] 2-to-13 month momentum is principally a forward-looking effect. [3] The 1-month return reversal effect arises principally from some backward-looking characteristic.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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