
Abstract We investigate the predictive power of market volatility for momentum. We find that (1) market volatility has significant power to forecast momentum payoffs, which is robust after controlling for market state and business cycle variables; (2) market volatility absorbs much of the predictive power of market state; (3) after controlling for market volatility and market state, other variables do not have incremental predictive power; (4) the time-series predictive power of market volatility is centered on loser stocks; and (5) default probability helps explain the predictive power of market volatility for momentum. These findings jointly present a significant challenge to existing theories on momentum.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 120 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
