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Dual Long-Memory, Structural Breaks and the Link Between Turnover and the Range-Based Volatility

Authors: Menelaos Karanasos;

Dual Long-Memory, Structural Breaks and the Link Between Turnover and the Range-Based Volatility

Abstract

This paper investigates the issue of temporal ordering of the range-based volatility and turnover volume in the Korean market for the period 1995-2005. We examine the dynamics of the two variables and their respective uncertainties using a bivariate dual long-memory model. We distinguish volume trading before the Asia financial crisis from trading after the crisis. We find that the apparent long-memory in the variables is quite resistant to the presence of breaks. However, when we take into account structural breaks the order of integration of the conditional variance series decreases considerably. Moreover, the impact of foreign volume on volatility is negative in the pre-crisis period but turns to positive after the crisis. This result is consistent with the view that foreign purchases tend to lower volatility in emerging markets - especially in the first few years after market liberalization when foreigners are buying into local markets - whereas foreign sales increase volatility. Before the crisis there is no causal effect for domestic volume on volatility whereas in the post-crisis period total and domestic volumes affect volatility positively. The former result is in line with the theoretical underpinnings that predict that trading within domestic investor groups does not affect volatility. The latter result is consistent with the theoretical argument that the positive relation between the two variables is driven by the uninformed general public.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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